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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still